How well might Yasmani Grandal hit for the Pirates this year?

They just signed him to a one year deal, $2.5 million. He has had negative WAR each of the last two years (-1.4 & -0.7). His OPS+ the last two years: 64 & 77.

His Marcel projection at Baseball Reference is for an OPS of .693. See Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System for more information. The AL had an OPS of .729 last year. .693 is below that but it is not bad for a catcher.

I used Stathead to call up all the catchers with 300+ PAs at both ages 33 & 34 (Grandal's ages the last two years) who had an OPS+ of 90 or less each year. There were 15 prior to Grandal.

The table below shows all of them with some relevant stats.

Player	Age 33 OPS+	Age 34 OPS+	Age 35 OPS+	Age 35 PA	Career OPS+ Thru Age 32
Yasmani Grandal	64	77			119
Jason Kendall	62	74	71	526	104
Mike Matheny	66	81	57	177	62
Brad Ausmus	74	55	63	448	83
Brent Mayne	69	60	68	414	83
Tony Pena	85	66	62	450	96
Rick Dempsey	77	89	108	420	86
Jim Hegan	79	67	75	369	77
Birdie Tebbetts	68	69	96	513	77
Al Lopez	87	88	62	372	85
Rollie Hemsley	75	66	34	211	76
Rick Ferrell	90	90	85	457	98
Walter Schmidt	89	65	91	156	69
Oscar Stanage	78	59	80	200	70
Billy Sullivan	52	28	45	155	70
Heinie Peitz	78	62	92	143	96

9 of the 15 actually had a higher OPS+ at age 35 than 34. But 4 of them had 200 or fewer PAs (the last 4 in the table who all played before 1925). The only guy to get at least a 100 OPS+ at age 35 with any significant playing time was Dempsey. Tebbetts came close at 96

The five most recent guys (the five listed right under Grandal) did not do well. The highest OPS+ among them was 71. One of them, Matheny, had little playing time (157 PAs). All five of them also did worse than their career OPS+ thru age 32.

Grandall is unusual for this group with his 119 career OPS+ thru age 32. At age 32, he had a .939 OPS. At age 33-34 he had .570-.647. The Marcel projection takes 3 years into account and that .939 OPS from 2021 is probably what gives him the .693 projection for this year (higher than either of the last two years). 

The only other guy here with a career OPS+ of 100 or higher thru age 32 is Kendall and he did not do that well at age 35. Just a 71 OPS+ (lower than the 71 at age 34) in 526 PAs.