Tuesday, February 13, 2024

How well might Yasmani Grandal hit for the Pirates this year?

They just signed him to a one year deal, $2.5 million. He has had negative WAR each of the last two years (-1.4 & -0.7). His OPS+ the last two years: 64 & 77.

His Marcel projection at Baseball Reference is for an OPS of .693. See Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System for more information. The AL had an OPS of .729 last year. .693 is below that but it is not bad for a catcher.

I used Stathead to call up all the catchers with 300+ PAs at both ages 33 & 34 (Grandal's ages the last two years) who had an OPS+ of 90 or less each year. There were 15 prior to Grandal.

The table below shows all of them with some relevant stats.

Player

Age 33 OPS+

Age 34 OPS+

Age 35 OPS+

Age 35 PA

Career OPS+ Thru Age 32

Yasmani Grandal

64

77

 

 

119

Jason Kendall

62

74

71

526

104

Mike Matheny

66

81

57

177

62

Brad Ausmus

74

55

63

448

83

Brent Mayne

69

60

68

414

83

Tony Pena

85

66

62

450

96

Rick Dempsey

77

89

108

420

86

Jim Hegan

79

67

75

369

77

Birdie Tebbetts

68

69

96

513

77

Al Lopez

87

88

62

372

85

Rollie Hemsley

75

66

34

211

76

Rick Ferrell

90

90

85

457

98

Walter Schmidt

89

65

91

156

69

Oscar Stanage

78

59

80

200

70

Billy Sullivan

52

28

45

155

70

Heinie Peitz

78

62

92

143

96

9 of the 15 actually had a higher OPS+ at age 35 than 34. But 4 of them had 200 or fewer PAs (the last 4 in the table who all played before 1925). The only guy to get at least a 100 OPS+ at age 35 with any significant playing time was Dempsey. Tebbetts came close at 96

The five most recent guys (the five listed right under Grandal) did not do well. The highest OPS+ among them was 71. One of them, Matheny, had little playing time (157 PAs). All five of them also did worse than their career OPS+ thru age 32.

Grandall is unusual for this group with his 119 career OPS+ thru age 32. At age 32, he had a .939 OPS. At age 33-34 he had .570-.647. The Marcel projection takes 3 years into account and that .939 OPS from 2021 is probably what gives him the .693 projection for this year (higher than either of the last two years). 

The only other guy here with a career OPS+ of 100 or higher thru age 32 is Kendall and he did not do that well at age 35. Just a 71 OPS+ (lower than the 71 at age 34) in 526 PAs.

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