Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Team OPS differentials for 2022

The numbers are in the table below. POPS is the OPS allowed by the team's pitching staff. The Dodgers hitters had a .775 OPS while their pitchers allowed .617. That gives them a .158 differential. Data from Baseball Reference and Stathead.

Last August I compiled the top 25 teams from 1901-2021. The 2022 Dodgers would tie for 4th place while the 2022 Astros would be tied for 15th. See Highest Team OPS Differentials, 1901-2021.

Team

OPS

POPS

W-L%

Diff

Los Angeles Dodgers

0.775

0.617

0.685

0.158

Houston Astros

0.743

0.613

0.654

0.130

New York Yankees

0.751

0.640

0.611

0.111

Atlanta Braves

0.761

0.651

0.623

0.110

New York Mets

0.744

0.676

0.623

0.068

Toronto Blue Jays

0.760

0.707

0.568

0.053

St. Louis Cardinals

0.745

0.696

0.574

0.049

Philadelphia Phillies

0.739

0.701

0.537

0.038

Cleveland Guardians

0.699

0.665

0.568

0.034

Milwaukee Brewers

0.724

0.691

0.531

0.033

San Diego Padres

0.700

0.679

0.549

0.021

Tampa Bay Rays

0.686

0.669

0.531

0.017

Seattle Mariners

0.704

0.688

0.556

0.016

Minnesota Twins

0.718

0.707

0.481

0.011

San Francisco Giants

0.705

0.702

0.500

0.003

Los Angeles Angels

0.687

0.685

0.451

0.002

Chicago White Sox

0.698

0.700

0.500

-0.002

Boston Red Sox

0.731

0.745

0.481

-0.014

Texas Rangers

0.696

0.722

0.420

-0.026

Baltimore Orioles

0.695

0.724

0.512

-0.029

Chicago Cubs

0.698

0.731

0.457

-0.033

Arizona Diamondbacks

0.689

0.729

0.457

-0.040

Miami Marlins

0.658

0.720

0.426

-0.062

Colorado Rockies

0.713

0.786

0.420

-0.073

Detroit Tigers

0.632

0.710

0.407

-0.078

Kansas City Royals

0.686

0.770

0.401

-0.084

Cincinnati Reds

0.676

0.766

0.383

-0.090

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.655

0.748

0.383

-0.093

Washington Nationals

0.688

0.791

0.340

-0.103

Oakland Athletics

0.626

0.750

0.370

-0.124

 

The graph below shows the relationship between team OPS differential and team W-L%.

The trend line shows that there was a very close relationship last year. The regression equation is

W-L% = 1.2151x + 0.4998 

The R² (R squared) = 0.9343, meaning 93.43% of the variation in team W-L% is explained by OPS differential. 

I was surprised by such a close relationship for just one year of data. Some regressions that I have done on this averaged team OPS differential and team W-L% over a five year period and had a lower R squared. See The Relationship Between OPS Differential And Winning Percentage Using 5 Year Averages.

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