Thursday, December 15, 2016

Swings In Pitching Game Scores In Playoff Series Deciding Games, 2007-2016

Suppose pitcher A had an average Game Score (GS) of 50 and pitcher B also had 50. Then in the deciding (last) game of a playoff series, pitcher A had a GS of 60 and pitcher B had 40. That is a swing of 20 since pitcher A did 10 better than normal and pitcher B did 10 worse.

The table below shows the swings for all the deciding games in the world series (WS) and league championships (LCS) from 2007-2016. I did not take into account how good the opposing hitters were, who was pitching at home and how much each pitcher varied in GS from game to game in the given season.

If one pitcher faced better hitters, it would tend to hold down his GS. Maybe pitching at home helps. And maybe some pitchers had a higher standard deviation in GS's in the given season. That could explain part of the swings.

The first pitcher listed is the one who exceeded his average season GS by the most in the deciding game (or fell short by the least). Kershaw has two of the three biggest swings and they are not in his favor. They are both very large in comparison to most swings.

AvGS is a pitcher's average game score for the season. DecGS is their game score for the deciding game. Diff is how much those two differed. Swing is the difference in the differences for each pitcher.


Year Series Pitcher AvGS DecGS Diff Pitcher AvGS DecGS Diff Swing
2013 NLCS Wacha 57.4 77 19.6 Kershaw 66.9 17 -49.9 69.5
2012 ALCS Scherzer 55.6 69 13.4 Sabathia 58.1 18 -40.1 53.5
2016 NLCS Hendricks 61.2 80 18.8 Kershaw 70.3 39 -31.3 50.1
2012 NLCS Cain 60.6 62 1.4 Lohse 56.7 24 -32.7 34.1
2010 ALCS Lewis 55.6 76 20.4 Hughes 52.1 39 -13.1 33.5
2013 WS Lackey 55.6 56 0.4 Wacha 57.4 28 -29.4 29.8
2009 ALCS Pettitte 50.4 60 9.6 Saunders 47.3 29 -18.3 27.9
2015 NLCS Matz 57.8 54 -3.8 Hammel 54.0 25 -29.0 25.2
2010 WS Lincecum 57.0 80 23.0 Lee 60.4 59 -1.4 24.4
2008 NLCS Hamels 58.8 65 6.2 Billingsley 55.8 38 -17.8 24.0
2011 ALCS Holland 52.0 39 -13.0 Scherzer 50.7 20 -30.7 17.7
2016 WS Hendricks 61.2 51 -10.2 Kluber 60.4 34 -26.4 16.2
2008 ALCS Garza 52.8 75 22.2 Lester 54.8 61 6.2 16.0
2007 NLCS Morales 52.3 49 -3.3 Owings 50.1 33 -17.1 13.9
2011 WS Carpenter 55.4 55 -0.4 Harrison 52.9 39 -13.9 13.5
2007 WS Lester 48.2 63 14.8 Cook 48.4 50 1.6 13.2
2009 NLCS Hamels 51.5 43 -8.5 Padilla 48.2 28 -20.2 11.7
2014 ALCS Vargas 52.0 63 11.0 Gonzalez 53.6 55 1.4 9.6
2015 ALCS Ventura 53.1 59 5.9 Price 61.8 59 -2.8 8.7
2010 NLCS Oswalt 60.9 53 -7.9 Sanchez 57.3 41 -16.3 8.4
2011 NLCS Jackson 50.8 34 -16.8 Marcum 55.1 31 -24.1 7.3
2009 WS Pettitte 50.4 47 -3.4 Martinez 52.1 43 -9.1 5.7
2013 ALCS Scherzer 62.8 56 -6.8 Buchholz 64.6 53 -11.6 4.8
2014 WS Guthrie 50.2 43 -7.2 Hudson 52.0 41 -11.0 3.8
2008 WS Hamels 58.8 56 -2.8 Kazmir 49.8 45 -4.8 2.0
2016 ALCS Estrada 57.0 59 2.0 Merritt  61.0 62 1.0 1.0
2012 WS Scherzer 55.6 54 -1.6 Cain 60.6 58 -2.6 1.0
2015 WS Harvey 60.7 71 10.3 Volquez 52.6 62 9.4 0.9
2007 ALCS Matsuzaka 53.2 50 -3.2 Westbrook 49.4 46 -3.4 0.2
2014 NLCS Wainwright 62.1 66 3.9 Bumgarner 59.2 63 3.8 0.1

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