Cubs are 10-11 in 1-run games-maybe their OPS of .653 in late & close situations is the reason

The Cubs OPS in late & close situations is just .653 (7th in NL). The league average is .680. The Cubs overall OPS is .782. Lg avg is .729.

Using all teams from 2010-14, the relationship between OPS differential and winning pct is

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

The Cubs currently have an OPS differential of .175. So they should have a winning pct of about .732 instead of "only" .662. They should have 56 wins, not just 51. Baseball Reference (where I got all my data) shows a Pythagorean total for the Cubs of 56.

Bad timing might be the reason the Cubs have not reached 56 wins.

The table shows some of their hitting splits.

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.260	0.370	0.447	0.818
None on	0.249	0.337	0.431	0.768
Men On	0.262	0.362	0.436	0.797
Late & Close	0.205	0.329	0.324	0.653
High Lvrge	0.264	0.362	0.406	0.769
Medium Lvrge	0.245	0.338	0.427	0.766
Low Lvrge	0.258	0.351	0.448	0.799

The table shows some of their pitching splits.

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.208	0.297	0.346	0.643
None on	0.210	0.276	0.333	0.609
Men On	0.202	0.286	0.317	0.603
Late & Close	0.198	0.286	0.303	0.589
High Lvrge	0.207	0.288	0.292	0.580
Medium Lvrge	0.196	0.266	0.319	0.584
Low Lvrge	0.216	0.290	0.346	0.636

The hitters do well with runners on and w/RISP but overall they do better in Low Leverage situations and, of course, late & close is a weakness (which is just a random thing). The only problem for the pitchers seems to be a somewhat high OPS w/RISP but they do much better in Medium and High Leverage Cases.