Astros & Rangers

This is through games of Thursday

• Astros have a team batting OPS of .733 and their pitchers have allowed .677. My regression estimates suggest the Astros should have a .573 pct or 84 wins, not 77
  
  For Rangers those are .732 & .743. So the Astros have a healthy positive differential while the Rangers are actually negative.
  
  Here are some things that might affect this and they are probably luck for the most part in favor of the Rangers
  
  Rangers allow a .666 OPS in close and late situations (much lower than what they normally allow). They are 26-20 in 1-run games and Astros are 19-26
  
  Astros Allow a .702 OPS with runners on and .660 with bases empty. Normally with runners on is higher but that is probably a bigger differential than normal. So that hurts them a bit
  
  Astros allow a .674 OPS in close and late situations, about what they normally do. So they don't gain like the Rangers do
  
  Astros hitting OPS in close and late situations is just .699. Rangers have .725. So the Astros hitters fall off more in those cases than the Rangers