Are The Yankees The Luckiest Team This Year?

Through Friday's games, their hitters had an OPS of .692 and their pitchers allowed .730. So they have a differential of -.038. From regression analysis, I came up with the following equation to predict a team's winning pct

Pct = .5 +1.21*OPSDIFF

That predicts that they would have a pct of .454 while it was .532 throug Friday. So they are doing .078 better than expected. Over 162 games, that is an extra 12.63 wins. The table below summarizes how all teams did in the prediction
 

Team	OPS	OPSA	Diff	W-L%	Pred	Diff	per162
NYY	0.692	0.730	-0.038	0.532	0.454	0.078	12.63
ATL	0.730	0.670	0.060	0.607	0.573	0.034	5.57
KCR	0.694	0.707	-0.013	0.518	0.484	0.034	5.46
BAL	0.753	0.750	0.003	0.536	0.504	0.032	5.24
LAD	0.724	0.672	0.052	0.593	0.563	0.030	4.87
PHI	0.687	0.746	-0.059	0.454	0.429	0.025	4.11
ARI	0.712	0.726	-0.014	0.507	0.483	0.024	3.88
STL	0.731	0.689	0.042	0.574	0.551	0.023	3.76
TEX	0.742	0.701	0.041	0.571	0.550	0.021	3.47
OAK	0.731	0.686	0.045	0.574	0.554	0.020	3.17
CLE	0.730	0.713	0.017	0.536	0.521	0.015	2.50
PIT	0.711	0.653	0.058	0.579	0.570	0.009	1.43
SDP	0.692	0.739	-0.047	0.450	0.443	0.007	1.11
CIN	0.724	0.677	0.047	0.563	0.557	0.006	0.99
BOS	0.793	0.714	0.079	0.601	0.596	0.005	0.88
MIN	0.701	0.754	-0.053	0.439	0.436	0.003	0.51
WSN	0.704	0.699	0.005	0.507	0.506	0.001	0.15
SEA	0.701	0.739	-0.038	0.454	0.454	0.000	0.00
TOR	0.727	0.756	-0.029	0.461	0.465	-0.004	-0.63
TBR	0.742	0.692	0.050	0.550	0.561	-0.011	-1.70
NYM	0.687	0.711	-0.024	0.453	0.471	-0.018	-2.91
HOU	0.682	0.804	-0.122	0.333	0.352	-0.019	-3.14
MIA	0.630	0.710	-0.080	0.381	0.403	-0.022	-3.60
COL	0.742	0.751	-0.009	0.465	0.489	-0.024	-3.91
LAA	0.743	0.742	0.001	0.471	0.501	-0.030	-4.89
SFG	0.696	0.709	-0.013	0.447	0.484	-0.037	-6.04
CHW	0.681	0.722	-0.041	0.400	0.450	-0.050	-8.16
CHC	0.701	0.717	-0.016	0.429	0.481	-0.052	-8.37
MIL	0.712	0.728	-0.016	0.429	0.481	-0.052	-8.37
DET	0.794	0.687	0.107	0.582	0.638	-0.056	-9.01

I wondered if they were doing especially better in clutch situations. The next table is for their hitters. These stats are through yesterday

Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
All PAs	0.248	0.313	0.380	0.693
RISP	0.263	0.345	0.392	0.737
None on	0.245	0.306	0.384	0.691
Men On	0.251	0.322	0.374	0.696
Late & Close	0.219	0.298	0.332	0.630

A little better with RISP but terrible when it is close and late. As you can see in the next table for pitchers, they do better with runners on but it does not seem really big. Their improvement when it is close and late is about at the league average for this year.

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
All PAs	0.263	0.320	0.414	0.734
RISP	0.246	0.322	0.386	0.709
None on	0.268	0.321	0.428	0.749
Men On	0.255	0.318	0.394	0.713
Late & Close	0.250	0.304	0.386	0.690