They have a team OPS of .597 while the NL average is .735. So they have a rate of 81 (.597/.735 = .81, which is 81 when multiplied by 100). The table below shows the ten worst seasons in OPS relative to the league average in both the NL and AL since 1900. Data from the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia.
But the news is even worse for the Astros. In April, their team OPS was.609 while the league average was .737, So they had a rate of 83.3. In May, their team OPS has been .578 while the NL average is .732. That gives them a rate of 79. So they are going in the wrong direction.
I just noticed last night that the Astros are scoring a pithetic 2.9 RPG on the road. Impressive...that's hard to accomplish. The O's are another one... scoring just 3.15 per game on the road.
ReplyDeleteThe lowest scoring home teams, aren't surprising either...
3.60 Astros
3.44 Diamondbacks
2.47 Orioles
Hi Cy,
ReplyDeleteThis fits with something I found this morning. The Astros have been the most hit-unlucky team in the majors this year. So, maybe there is hope that they will turn things around.
Link
Thanks to both of you for dropping by and commenting. Great info!
ReplyDeleteJC, that is a huge deficit for the Astros in terms of their OPS being lower than their PrOPS. They seem very unlucky, compared even to the next most unlucky team. Can your model predict what their team OPS will be the rest of the season?
Assuming the Astros are a true .720 OPS team and about a 1/5 of the season has been played, then they could expect to finish up with around a .700 OPS. But, I don't know if you can read that much into the numbers beyond the fact that the Astros have had some bad luck. On the extremes of a model like this it's not going to predict as well, so the Astros have probably played worse than a .720 team.
ReplyDeleteThanks. If they end up at .700, it would not be too bad.
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