Monday, April 26, 2010

Do Home Runs Cause More Hit Batters?

Possibly. This issue came up in a NY Times article by STUART MILLER called Plunking Parallel: Steroid Use and Hit Batsmen (Hat Tip: JC Bradbury). I have done some work on this. Here are some findings, in no particular order:

From More On The Changing Historical Relationship Between Walks, HBPs and HRs
-There is a significant positive relationship between a pitcher's walk rate and his HBP rate

-In the 1960s, a pitcher who gave up more HRs hit fewer batters but today a pitcher who gives up more HRs hits more batters.

From The Changing Historical Relationship Between Walks, HBPs and HRs
-For both leagues, the HBP/Walk rate has been rising since 1980 (so poor control is not the only reason for more HBP).

-In recent years (up through 2007), the HBP/HR rate has been relatively high, even adjusting HBPs for control as measured by the walk rate.

From Do Sluggers Get Hit By The Pitch More Than They Used To?
-players who hit HRs more frequently are now more likely to get hit by a pitch than in the the 50s, 60s and 70s.

-hitting a HR in the 1990s was 83% more dangerous in the 1990s than it was in the 1960s in terms of causing the player to be HBP.

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