tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post8602155653285449186..comments2024-01-26T13:08:26.506-08:00Comments on Cybermetrics: How Much Of A Yankee Killer Was Frank Lary?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-6525541316420799212017-05-17T14:37:05.979-07:002017-05-17T14:37:05.979-07:00I, like Don McLean earlier, was a die-hard Yankee ...I, like Don McLean earlier, was a die-hard Yankee fan during the Frank Lary era. You have a lot of statistics, but the fact is that Lary did master the Yankees with regularity unmatched by any other pitcher of the era. It seemed at the time that Lary, who incidentally won over 100 games during his career, could throw his glove out on the mound and win.<br /><br />At the time, and still today, look on Lary as a Yankee-killer ... and let me assure you, I was NOT a Lary fan.<br /><br />Sometimes perception is correct -- statistics or no statistics.<br /><br />Doyice CottenDoyice Cottenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10553690042769488142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-88428054233295596042016-07-25T04:54:02.442-07:002016-07-25T04:54:02.442-07:00Don
Thank you for taking the time to read my blog...Don<br /><br />Thank you for taking the time to read my blog and post your comments. Randomness is always a possibility. Your point about the stock market is a good analogy. It may have been luck that the Tigers hit a bit better and fielded a bit better when Lary pitched.<br /><br />You might like this article "The Statistical Mirage of Clutch Hitting"<br /><br />http://cyrilmorong.com/BrooksClutch2.htm<br /><br />It raises the issue of luck determining who looks like a clutch hitter.<br /><br />CyrilCyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-74222769724312054662016-07-25T02:30:51.630-07:002016-07-25T02:30:51.630-07:00I am 75 years of age. I am fascinated by your ana...I am 75 years of age. I am fascinated by your analysis, because I suffered through the pain of Lary's dominance as youngster, even though much of your explanations I don't follow. As a die hard Yankee fan as a boy, but not thereafter, I suffered through watching in person quite a few Frank Lary complete game victories, mostly in Detroit, once in New York. And I seem to hear most of them through the voice of Mel Allen. It was awful.<br /><br />But if you don't mind my saying, I think much of his success can simply be attributed to luck. Those advocating indexing in the stock market point to those few who slaughter the index and say, using the odds of getting say tails on 16 consecutive coin flips, for example, that their outlandish success can be attributed to luck, considering the number of people trying to beat the market or even playing the market. Same thing here, there are a lot of games, a lot of pitchers etc.<br /><br /><br />From 1949-1964 when the Yankees won 13 pennants in 15 years, they did not win two games out of three over those years, even though one of those 2 years when they did not win, they won 103 games, 1954. What other sports dynasty in other major sports did not win two out of three, or even came close to not doing so? So in baseball it just goes to show that no matter how good you are, even if you have lineup of say many Hall of Famers, you are going to lose a lot of games, simply by chance. In other words, in baseball over the long haul, being good, or even being great, is not enough to win two out of every three games. It simply can't be done. Why?<br /><br />From all the games I watched or listened to Mel Allen on the radio, I don't ever remember the Tigers making a horrible error at a crucial time of the game when Lary pitched (or even Don Mossi in his prime). And it seemed to me that the Tigers always hit the cover off the ball when Lary pitched, Charley Maxwell and Al Kaline in particular. What a lucky break for Lary.<br /><br />It would also seem fair to discount 1959 the year the Yankees truly were horrible. Lary won 5 times vs NY in 1959, but Mossi won 6 and Calvin Julius Caesar whatever McLish also won 5 times.<br /><br />I may well have misunderstood your excellent research, but I don't see that you have come up with a viable explanation for Lary's success. Why is randomness not a possibility? Or does Cybermetrics discount luck in baseball? <br /><br />Don McLean<br />410-5070 Fairview Street<br />Burlington, Ontario<br />Canada L7L 0B8<br />905 635 9997Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-9019293695502933652016-07-25T02:05:44.842-07:002016-07-25T02:05:44.842-07:00just a test, to see if it works, more to follow if...just a test, to see if it works, more to follow if soAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-87266311506987472582014-12-16T12:58:39.916-08:002014-12-16T12:58:39.916-08:00He was not clutch. See his splits at Baseball Refe...He was not clutch. See his splits at Baseball Reference<br /><br />http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=laryfr01&year=Career&t=p<br /><br />Look at the OPS he allowed by leverage. His best situation by far is low leverage<br /><br />High Lvrge 0.700<br />Medium Lvrge 0.713<br />Low Lvrge 0.662<br />Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-86090489352428597242014-12-16T11:23:19.065-08:002014-12-16T11:23:19.065-08:00With a 'no comment' to preclude your need ...With a 'no comment' to preclude your need to validate your analysis--<br />I believe the difference with Lary vs any mathematic aspect was that he simply made clutch pitches when he had to-- in clutch situations.<br /><br />That? Is baseball.<br />You can tear it into as many pieces as you like-- but it comes down to what outcome occurs on any given pitch-- and the game situation of that pitch.<br /><br />Simply? Lary was great when required.<br /><br />jw1jw1@jw1.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-72044524488127203932014-07-12T18:02:51.338-07:002014-07-12T18:02:51.338-07:00Can you explain why any part of my analysis is wro...Can you explain why any part of my analysis is wrong?Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-36023019436391797552014-07-12T16:17:41.433-07:002014-07-12T16:17:41.433-07:00This is an old analysis, and the comments have bee...This is an old analysis, and the comments have been excruciating in their detail, but how about the most obvious questions: did any other pitcher have anywhere near this winning percentage against the Yankees during these years? Remember, the Yanks made the WS 6 times during this periods, so it wasn't like Lary was pitching against the St Louis Browns. And even if Stengel could have managed to manipulate his pitching rotation and match up his lesser pitchers against Lary, it wasn't a second string lineup which was batting for the Yanks. Don't over think this. During those years, for whatever reason, Lary just had their numbermingpoohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04637297527839630465noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-88062811071021653352013-08-26T11:41:38.380-07:002013-08-26T11:41:38.380-07:00I grew up in that period.What "nunyer" c...I grew up in that period.What "nunyer" commented on for 1958 is probably the reason for the Yankee Killer label. I remember broadcasters and writers using that term for him. All of the analysis with numbers is over doing it.drotthobbienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-56954610690798572562012-11-12T12:45:07.674-08:002012-11-12T12:45:07.674-08:00Thanks for dropping by and supplying that info. Bu...Thanks for dropping by and supplying that info. But again, what was it specifically that Lary did better against the Yankees? Was it striking batters out, not walking people, not allowing HRs?Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-23045048266733055192012-11-12T12:23:44.833-08:002012-11-12T12:23:44.833-08:00In an interview with Casy Stengel about his pitchi...In an interview with Casy Stengel about his pitching choice against Frank Lary, Casey was quoted as saying that he did not want to waste his best pitcher [presumably Whitey Ford]. So, here's a case for perception by the opposing manager and not just Tiger fans.<br />DocAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-69627613848643263622012-10-26T08:19:24.176-07:002012-10-26T08:19:24.176-07:00But you are not looking at my analysis. How did he...But you are not looking at my analysis. How did he get that lower ERA? It wasn't through preventing more HRs or a lower SO/BB ratio. It was a lower average on balls in play. So that means his defense played great behind him. It might not have been anything he did.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-25925306730232946822012-10-25T22:27:15.097-07:002012-10-25T22:27:15.097-07:00The guy had a 3.06 ERA against what was by far the...The guy had a 3.06 ERA against what was by far the best team in baseball during that era. What was the rest of the league's ERA against the Yankees from 1955 to 1961? Without having the numbers in front of me, I'd be willing to bet it was probably around 4.50, maybe a little higher. Most of those years, the Yankees were averaging about five runs per game.<br /><br />Lary was pitching a run and a half better than the league against the Yankees, and he had a good team behind him. And that's why he went 27-10.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00025084603769153259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-76651101062656901032012-09-08T19:30:34.338-07:002012-09-08T19:30:34.338-07:00Thanks for dropping by and commenting. What you sa...Thanks for dropping by and commenting. What you say is true, but that season represents less than 20% of his career innings against the YankeesCyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-65671629516014793292012-09-08T18:39:27.785-07:002012-09-08T18:39:27.785-07:00I think we might be seeing the forest but ignoring...I think we might be seeing the forest but ignoring the trees here.. I think it probably all comes down to when he was tagged with the nickname. Just taking a quick look at his splits, he went 7-1 with an ERA of 1.86 against the 1958 Yankees, the eventual world champs. He held them to a .204 average, 65 points below their season average... and threw two complete game shutouts as well. That's the kind of season that can earn you a nickname.Nunyernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-43755909900111804722012-08-14T18:03:23.665-07:002012-08-14T18:03:23.665-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-90995112444580208692012-08-14T18:03:21.655-07:002012-08-14T18:03:21.655-07:00edru, you seem to be saying that all you need to k...edru, you seem to be saying that all you need to know about a pitcher is his won-loss record. I don't think any serious baseball analyst believes that anymore. If he earned the moniker, how did he earn it? Was it giving up fewer hits than might have been expectd, fewer walks, fewer HRs, more strikeouts? It does not look like it.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-6482223355650767422012-08-14T17:47:45.789-07:002012-08-14T17:47:45.789-07:00To me, a winning percentage of over 2 victories fo...To me, a winning percentage of over 2 victories for 1 defeat against the 1955-61 Yankees is enough to earn the moniker. He earned it.edru@verizon.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-38008222157060013072012-07-24T05:48:32.183-07:002012-07-24T05:48:32.183-07:00Thanks for dropping by and commenting. You raise s...Thanks for dropping by and commenting. You raise some interesting points and that might be an interesting study, although alot of researchers don't believe in the idea of a "hot hand" so it might not matter if the Yankees were going well or not right before they faced Lary.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-68455957781943719752012-07-24T03:53:16.585-07:002012-07-24T03:53:16.585-07:00Perceptions count for a lot in baseball, and they ...Perceptions count for a lot in baseball, and they often die hard.<br /><br />Some beat writer probably came up with the "Yankee Killer" tag one day early in Lary's career, and the tag just stuck, as tags so often do in baseball.<br /><br />Be that as it may, most players, pitchers included, can point to opponents they do especially well against, for whatever reason. <br /><br />I've always suspected that one explanation for this is simply that those opponents happened to come up in the schedule at a time when the player was going well. Or when the opponent was going bad.<br /><br />Baseball is a game of up-and-down periods. Except for a few extraordinarily consistent players (and teams), performance varies widely from week to week and month to month during the course of a season. If a particular opponent happens to face you at a time when you're going well, then obviously your stats against that opponent will vary in accordance. <br /><br />I guess what I'm saying is that simple randomness is an extremely powerful "force" in baseball, and rarely given its due by writers.<br /><br />Perhaps another interesting study: what was the Yankees' W-L record in the week prior to each time they faced Lary, and is there statistical significance to their record against him during those times as opposed to everyone else?Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-35573137872407980792011-01-05T12:41:17.734-08:002011-01-05T12:41:17.734-08:00Again, you're welcome. Thanks for looking at t...Again, you're welcome. Thanks for looking at the individual starters.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-60898652954598945032011-01-05T12:28:08.854-08:002011-01-05T12:28:08.854-08:00Thank you for the research. Just as I supposed. Af...Thank you for the research. Just as I supposed. After his initial success against them, with few exceptions, they paired him up for the most part with less than front end of the rotation pitchers. By my own subjective count, of his 42 starts in this period, twelve came against pitchers who were having good years or who could be considered a number one or two starter. This alone should not only have given him the extra edge in those games, but in all likelihood would explain the exceptionally good results he attained.<br />Add to that, if we checked further, we'd probably find out that the relievers used in those games were the bottom end guys in the bullpen.<br />Thanks again.vinnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-58062972719650785892011-01-04T20:16:40.795-08:002011-01-04T20:16:40.795-08:00You're welcome. Thanks for your observations. ...You're welcome. Thanks for your observations. Here are the opposing starters. I think they are in order in any given year of when Lary faced them<br /><br />1955 Turley<br />1955 Byrne<br />1955 Turley<br />1955 Turley<br />1956 Kucks<br />1956 Ford<br />1956 Byrne<br />1956 Grim<br />1956 McDermott<br />1956 Kucks<br />1956 R. Coleman<br />1957 Ditmar<br />1957 Turley<br />1957 Turley<br />1957 Kucks<br />1957 Byrne<br />1958 Ford<br />1958 Maglie<br />1958 Larsen<br />1958 Maas<br />1958 Monroe<br />1958 Ditmar<br />1958 Ditmar<br />1958 Duren<br />1959 Turley<br />1959 Shantz<br />1959 Terry<br />1959 Ford<br />1959 Ditmar<br />1959 Grba<br />1959 Grba<br />1960 Short<br />1960 Terry<br />1960 Ford<br />1960 Ford<br />1960 Terry<br />1961 Turley<br />1961 Ditmar<br />1961 Ford<br />1961 Turley<br />1961 Terry<br />1961 TerryCyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-66470767562518772712011-01-04T19:58:58.310-08:002011-01-04T19:58:58.310-08:00Thanks much for taking the time and in crunching t...Thanks much for taking the time and in crunching the numbers.<br />My guess was that after the initial success he had against them, Casey just might have gone with his third orforth best starter or one of his many swingmen to face Lary and that persisted with Houk for most of the rest of his career.<br />With the exception of Ford, and a couple of good seasons from Turley and possibly Terry, he wasn't facing the best pitching opponent the Yankees had. This could also explain why the Tigers scored more than expected whenever he pitched.<br />There could be a great study to be made one day of just how much the competition and quality of the opposing pitchers added to or subtracted from the success or failure of some of the great or not so great pitchers and our perceptions of them.<br />It would be interesting to come up with some kind of metric that could take this into account and give us an even clearer image of every pitchers career and their true value.<br />Thanks again for taking the time and for the great work you're doing here and elsewhere.vinnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-10583080972445123992011-01-02T10:16:57.080-08:002011-01-02T10:16:57.080-08:00I found the overall ERA of all Yankee starters dur...I found the overall ERA of all Yankee starters during these years. It was 3.39. I found every pitcher who had 1 or more start then calculated a weighted average of their ERAs (using the total ERA of each guy, not just when they started). Then I found the weighted average of the ERAs of the guys who started against Lary (weighted by number of games startred). That was 3.47. Not too much different.<br /><br />Now that does not take into account how long they stayed in any games or what their ERAs were in the season in which they started against Lary. But my guess is that he faced a typical group of Yankee pitchers overall.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.com