tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post190566653646347524..comments2024-01-26T13:08:26.506-08:00Comments on Cybermetrics: Should Andy Pettitte Make The Hall Of Fame?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-29839883003292418442009-11-11T17:57:19.323-08:002009-11-11T17:57:19.323-08:00David
Thanks for dropping by and commenting. Grea...David<br /><br />Thanks for dropping by and commenting. Great questions that I probably don't have the answers for. Are there any stats out there on pick offs and DPs, especially relative to league average? His RSAA would be affected by such an abililty (and recall he ranks 13th among lefties in RSAA/IP). Retrosheet has GDPs but I guess it would take some time to compare that to the league average. Then you would have to determine the number of opportunities he had.<br /><br />I did find in one study that he did give up fewer runs than expected based on OBP, SLG, SO rate and handedness. His ERA was about .08 lower than predicted. That study is at<br /><br />http://cyrilmorong.com/Pitrunnexp.htm<br /><br />If he was getting alot of benefit from pickoffs and DPs, it is not showing up.<br /><br />So far in his career, his actual ERA is .06 lower than his component ERA, according to Bill James. That only takes into account hits, HRs, BBs and HBP. Maybe these other things you mention could be the difference.<br /><br />But I did a study on component era which is at<br /><br />http://cyrilmorong.com/Comp.htm<br /><br />If I use the formula from that, which is<br /><br />ERA = .427 + .881*CERA + .1188*SO/IP - .0986*DUM(for LHP)<br /><br />on Pettitte, it predicts he would have a 3.91 ERA, which is what he does have. Being a lefty might help on the DPs since you face more righties. And a lower strikeout rate means more chances for DPs. He has been just about average at that. So is his DP ability due to inducing groundballs or lack of strikeouts (maybe a combo)? I don't know, but it appears he has the ERA we would expect based on the normal stats. But there could still be other things going on.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-34160094201339143712009-11-11T16:44:59.605-08:002009-11-11T16:44:59.605-08:00How much should we adjust Pettitte's walk rate...How much should we adjust Pettitte's walk rate for his extraordinary ability to pick runners off base and induce double plays. Andy's WHIP underestimates his ability since he was so good at removing base runners.David Pintohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12805172700693217895noreply@blogger.com