Monday, June 10, 2019

The 1927 Yankees performed (relatively) poorly in High Leverage situations

The Yankees were 110-44 for a .714 pct. In a post a couple of weeks ago, I listed the all-time leaders in OPS differential and they had by far the highest, .201. The 1913 A's were 2nd with .166 and the 1936 Yankees were 3rd with .164.

From regressions I have done, I estimate winning pct with this formula

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

That would give them a .765 pct. or 117.86 wins.

Here is how they did by leverage. POPS is what their pitchers allowed. Data from Baseball Reference.

 Split OPS POPS Diff High Lvrge 0.802 0.649 0.153 Medium Lvrge 0.864 0.691 0.173 Low Lvrge 0.901 0.665 0.236

If we break things down by leverage, I have the following equation

Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH

where the LOW, MED and HIGH refer to OPS differential in those cases.  That estimates the Yankees with a .670 pct or 112.6 wins.

So their relatively poorly performance in High (and Medium) Leverage situations may have cost them 5 wins.