tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post8602155653285449186..comments2014-04-14T08:52:39.614-07:00Comments on Cybermetrics: How Much Of A Yankee Killer Was Frank Lary?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-88062811071021653352013-08-26T11:41:38.380-07:002013-08-26T11:41:38.380-07:00I grew up in that period.What "nunyer" c...I grew up in that period.What "nunyer" commented on for 1958 is probably the reason for the Yankee Killer label. I remember broadcasters and writers using that term for him. All of the analysis with numbers is over doing it.drotthobbienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-56954610690798572562012-11-12T12:45:07.674-08:002012-11-12T12:45:07.674-08:00Thanks for dropping by and supplying that info. Bu...Thanks for dropping by and supplying that info. But again, what was it specifically that Lary did better against the Yankees? Was it striking batters out, not walking people, not allowing HRs?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-23045048266733055192012-11-12T12:23:44.833-08:002012-11-12T12:23:44.833-08:00In an interview with Casy Stengel about his pitchi...In an interview with Casy Stengel about his pitching choice against Frank Lary, Casey was quoted as saying that he did not want to waste his best pitcher [presumably Whitey Ford]. So, here's a case for perception by the opposing manager and not just Tiger fans.<br />DocAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-69627613848643263622012-10-26T08:19:24.176-07:002012-10-26T08:19:24.176-07:00But you are not looking at my analysis. How did he...But you are not looking at my analysis. How did he get that lower ERA? It wasn't through preventing more HRs or a lower SO/BB ratio. It was a lower average on balls in play. So that means his defense played great behind him. It might not have been anything he did.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-25925306730232946822012-10-25T22:27:15.097-07:002012-10-25T22:27:15.097-07:00The guy had a 3.06 ERA against what was by far the...The guy had a 3.06 ERA against what was by far the best team in baseball during that era. What was the rest of the league's ERA against the Yankees from 1955 to 1961? Without having the numbers in front of me, I'd be willing to bet it was probably around 4.50, maybe a little higher. Most of those years, the Yankees were averaging about five runs per game.<br /><br />Lary was pitching a run and a half better than the league against the Yankees, and he had a good team behind him. And that's why he went 27-10.Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00025084603769153259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-76651101062656901032012-09-08T19:30:34.338-07:002012-09-08T19:30:34.338-07:00Thanks for dropping by and commenting. What you sa...Thanks for dropping by and commenting. What you say is true, but that season represents less than 20% of his career innings against the YankeesCyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-65671629516014793292012-09-08T18:39:27.785-07:002012-09-08T18:39:27.785-07:00I think we might be seeing the forest but ignoring...I think we might be seeing the forest but ignoring the trees here.. I think it probably all comes down to when he was tagged with the nickname. Just taking a quick look at his splits, he went 7-1 with an ERA of 1.86 against the 1958 Yankees, the eventual world champs. He held them to a .204 average, 65 points below their season average... and threw two complete game shutouts as well. That's the kind of season that can earn you a nickname.Nunyernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-43755909900111804722012-08-14T18:03:23.665-07:002012-08-14T18:03:23.665-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-90995112444580208692012-08-14T18:03:21.655-07:002012-08-14T18:03:21.655-07:00edru, you seem to be saying that all you need to k...edru, you seem to be saying that all you need to know about a pitcher is his won-loss record. I don't think any serious baseball analyst believes that anymore. If he earned the moniker, how did he earn it? Was it giving up fewer hits than might have been expectd, fewer walks, fewer HRs, more strikeouts? It does not look like it.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-6482223355650767422012-08-14T17:47:45.789-07:002012-08-14T17:47:45.789-07:00To me, a winning percentage of over 2 victories fo...To me, a winning percentage of over 2 victories for 1 defeat against the 1955-61 Yankees is enough to earn the moniker. He earned it.edru@verizon.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-38008222157060013072012-07-24T05:48:32.183-07:002012-07-24T05:48:32.183-07:00Thanks for dropping by and commenting. You raise s...Thanks for dropping by and commenting. You raise some interesting points and that might be an interesting study, although alot of researchers don't believe in the idea of a "hot hand" so it might not matter if the Yankees were going well or not right before they faced Lary.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-68455957781943719752012-07-24T03:53:16.585-07:002012-07-24T03:53:16.585-07:00Perceptions count for a lot in baseball, and they ...Perceptions count for a lot in baseball, and they often die hard.<br /><br />Some beat writer probably came up with the "Yankee Killer" tag one day early in Lary's career, and the tag just stuck, as tags so often do in baseball.<br /><br />Be that as it may, most players, pitchers included, can point to opponents they do especially well against, for whatever reason. <br /><br />I've always suspected that one explanation for this is simply that those opponents happened to come up in the schedule at a time when the player was going well. Or when the opponent was going bad.<br /><br />Baseball is a game of up-and-down periods. Except for a few extraordinarily consistent players (and teams), performance varies widely from week to week and month to month during the course of a season. If a particular opponent happens to face you at a time when you're going well, then obviously your stats against that opponent will vary in accordance. <br /><br />I guess what I'm saying is that simple randomness is an extremely powerful "force" in baseball, and rarely given its due by writers.<br /><br />Perhaps another interesting study: what was the Yankees' W-L record in the week prior to each time they faced Lary, and is there statistical significance to their record against him during those times as opposed to everyone else?Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-35573137872407980792011-01-05T12:41:17.734-08:002011-01-05T12:41:17.734-08:00Again, you're welcome. Thanks for looking at t...Again, you're welcome. Thanks for looking at the individual starters.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-60898652954598945032011-01-05T12:28:08.854-08:002011-01-05T12:28:08.854-08:00Thank you for the research. Just as I supposed. Af...Thank you for the research. Just as I supposed. After his initial success against them, with few exceptions, they paired him up for the most part with less than front end of the rotation pitchers. By my own subjective count, of his 42 starts in this period, twelve came against pitchers who were having good years or who could be considered a number one or two starter. This alone should not only have given him the extra edge in those games, but in all likelihood would explain the exceptionally good results he attained.<br />Add to that, if we checked further, we'd probably find out that the relievers used in those games were the bottom end guys in the bullpen.<br />Thanks again.vinnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-58062972719650785892011-01-04T20:16:40.795-08:002011-01-04T20:16:40.795-08:00You're welcome. Thanks for your observations. ...You're welcome. Thanks for your observations. Here are the opposing starters. I think they are in order in any given year of when Lary faced them<br /><br />1955 Turley<br />1955 Byrne<br />1955 Turley<br />1955 Turley<br />1956 Kucks<br />1956 Ford<br />1956 Byrne<br />1956 Grim<br />1956 McDermott<br />1956 Kucks<br />1956 R. Coleman<br />1957 Ditmar<br />1957 Turley<br />1957 Turley<br />1957 Kucks<br />1957 Byrne<br />1958 Ford<br />1958 Maglie<br />1958 Larsen<br />1958 Maas<br />1958 Monroe<br />1958 Ditmar<br />1958 Ditmar<br />1958 Duren<br />1959 Turley<br />1959 Shantz<br />1959 Terry<br />1959 Ford<br />1959 Ditmar<br />1959 Grba<br />1959 Grba<br />1960 Short<br />1960 Terry<br />1960 Ford<br />1960 Ford<br />1960 Terry<br />1961 Turley<br />1961 Ditmar<br />1961 Ford<br />1961 Turley<br />1961 Terry<br />1961 TerryCyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-66470767562518772712011-01-04T19:58:58.310-08:002011-01-04T19:58:58.310-08:00Thanks much for taking the time and in crunching t...Thanks much for taking the time and in crunching the numbers.<br />My guess was that after the initial success he had against them, Casey just might have gone with his third orforth best starter or one of his many swingmen to face Lary and that persisted with Houk for most of the rest of his career.<br />With the exception of Ford, and a couple of good seasons from Turley and possibly Terry, he wasn't facing the best pitching opponent the Yankees had. This could also explain why the Tigers scored more than expected whenever he pitched.<br />There could be a great study to be made one day of just how much the competition and quality of the opposing pitchers added to or subtracted from the success or failure of some of the great or not so great pitchers and our perceptions of them.<br />It would be interesting to come up with some kind of metric that could take this into account and give us an even clearer image of every pitchers career and their true value.<br />Thanks again for taking the time and for the great work you're doing here and elsewhere.vinnienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-10583080972445123992011-01-02T10:16:57.080-08:002011-01-02T10:16:57.080-08:00I found the overall ERA of all Yankee starters dur...I found the overall ERA of all Yankee starters during these years. It was 3.39. I found every pitcher who had 1 or more start then calculated a weighted average of their ERAs (using the total ERA of each guy, not just when they started). Then I found the weighted average of the ERAs of the guys who started against Lary (weighted by number of games startred). That was 3.47. Not too much different.<br /><br />Now that does not take into account how long they stayed in any games or what their ERAs were in the season in which they started against Lary. But my guess is that he faced a typical group of Yankee pitchers overall.Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-71993292340705532622011-01-02T08:37:58.363-08:002011-01-02T08:37:58.363-08:00Thanks for dropping by and commenting. Good point....Thanks for dropping by and commenting. Good point. That is something I wondered about. Here is what I came up with for number of starts by the Yankees<br /><br />Byrne 3<br />Ditmar 5<br />Duren 1<br />Ford 6<br />Grba 2<br />Grim 1<br />Kucks 3<br />Larsen 1<br />Maas 1<br />Maglie 1<br />McDermott 1<br />Monroe 1<br />R. Coleman 1<br />Shantz 1<br />Short 1<br />Terry 5<br />Turley 8<br /><br />Turley, Ford and Terry seem a little low. None of them made even 20% of the startsCyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-4546002673097024772011-01-01T21:46:27.362-08:002011-01-01T21:46:27.362-08:00Interesting. From the fact that the Tigers scored ...Interesting. From the fact that the Tigers scored more when he was pitching raises the question of whether or not he was facing the best Yankee pitchers? From a quick glance, it seems he faced the third or forth best starter in the games he won. Could this help account for his success?vinnienoreply@blogger.com