tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post1255854359233765311..comments2024-01-26T13:08:26.506-08:00Comments on Cybermetrics: How Well Has Roger Clemens Aged?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-87681274402842758512008-02-12T09:36:00.000-08:002008-02-12T09:36:00.000-08:00". But I think to even say "maybe a guy used PEDs,...". But I think to even say "maybe a guy used PEDs," I want to see some unusual statistical pattern (absense any kind of blood/urine test). I don't even know what kind of testing program is appropriate."<BR/><BR/>Not everyone is barry bonds. A lot players have been using earlier in their careers, so numbers may not indicate something suspicious since the use of the drugs has been going on for a very long time.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05192823333967228824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-73845653193264646422008-02-12T07:28:00.000-08:002008-02-12T07:28:00.000-08:00MinusThanks for the clarification. Pitchers can ha...Minus<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the clarification. Pitchers can have good first halves and bad second halves and vice-versa. The thing to would be to see if any swing that Clemens ever had is alot bigger than what anyone else ever had.<BR/><BR/>Phil<BR/><BR/>Thanks for dropping by. I think you raise a very important question. I don't think anyone knows how much steroids add. Maybe it would take controlled experiments, which I don't think will ever happen. But I think to even say "maybe a guy used PEDs," I want to see some unusual statistical pattern (absense any kind of blood/urine test). I don't even know what kind of testing program is appropriate.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-29080870987167245132008-02-11T22:37:00.000-08:002008-02-11T22:37:00.000-08:00Here's a question I haven't seen answered yet: wha...Here's a question I haven't seen answered yet: what kind of improvement could a pitcher expect from going on steroids? It seems like nobody knows the answer, but it doesn't stop anyone from looking for evidence in the statistics ...<BR/><BR/>If it's a small amount -- say, 0.25 in ERA -- it would take a pretty big sample to notice it.Phil Birnbaumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03800617749001032996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-5691001766771126592008-02-11T11:30:00.000-08:002008-02-11T11:30:00.000-08:00"His career ERA before then was 2.97. His ERA in 1..."His career ERA before then was 2.97. His ERA in 1997 as 2.05."<BR/><BR/>I was talking about his ERA in 98 prior to mcnamee, and the same goes for his k/ip. I wasn't talking about his career ERA. I never mentioned anything about his previous career numbers. I'm just going by what's in the mitchell report. When Mcnamee supposedly started to inject clemens, his ERA did in fact decrease during 98, while he started striking out more batters per 9 innings. This could very well mean nothing, or it could mean steroids had a very positive effect on his performance.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05192823333967228824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-51781844534350741772008-02-06T20:36:00.000-08:002008-02-06T20:36:00.000-08:00I don't know how fast steroids work if they work a...I don't know how fast steroids work if they work at all. Those are questions that should be answered but I don't know how to do it.<BR/><BR/>In 1998, Clemens had 10.39 strikeouts per 9 IP. That was his career high, but less than the 11.11 you show. Where is the 3.27 ERA before 1998 coming from? His career ERA before then was 2.97. His ERA in 1997 as 2.05. <BR/><BR/>You are referring to swings in his ERA. He has had them other times in his career. It fell from 3.13 in 1989 to 1.93 in 1990. Here are his ERAs from 1992-1996<BR/><BR/>2.41<BR/>4.46<BR/>2.85<BR/>4.18<BR/><BR/>We could say he juiced in the good years and not in the bad years. But then we are claiming he has been juicing on and off for most of his career. The question is are his swings unusual? Are his swings so much different than what other pitchers ever had that they bear closer scrutiny?Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-1116650320599472322008-02-05T20:34:00.000-08:002008-02-05T20:34:00.000-08:00I decided to take a look at clemens ERA during the...I decided to take a look at clemens ERA during the "before and after" periods of when McNamee allegedly injected him, and all three years show a decrease in ERA. This may very well mean nothing, but his 1998 season sticks out to me as the most interesting. Before Mcnamee in 98, clemens boasted a 3.27 ERA, and was averaging 9.18 K/9. Then comes McNamee into the picture, and Clemens posts a 2.29 ERA in more innings pitched, and averages 11.11 k/9. He ends the year setting his career high in that stat. The biggest question in my mind was: What does this all mean? do steroids enhance peformance that fast? was it all just a placebo? What about his 97 season? Was he juicing then too? what about in 1999? it's really very hard to say whether or not steroids effected his performance. in some years it look like it did, and some others it just doesnt seem so. Hopefully we'll learn more about the extent of his use in the future, if he even used them in the first place.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05192823333967228824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-80872735330022808472008-02-04T14:24:00.000-08:002008-02-04T14:24:00.000-08:00Thanks for droppng by and commenting. You are righ...Thanks for droppng by and commenting. You are right that individual seasons should be looked at. I do have links to articles I wrote specifically about his 2005 season. I think JC Bradbury does a good job of doing what you suggest.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-35423039512015698262008-02-04T14:08:00.000-08:002008-02-04T14:08:00.000-08:00The problem with this analysis is your just lumpin...The problem with this analysis is your just lumping in a group of seasons together. Clemens steroid use seemed to be happening in certain seasons, during certain periods of time. Your probably better off looking at every single season of clemens post boston career, and trying to figure out if clemens has any weird or strange jumps that coincide with the times mcnamee allegedly injected him.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05192823333967228824noreply@blogger.com