tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post103095704268662458..comments2024-01-26T13:08:26.506-08:00Comments on Cybermetrics: Can "Pitching To Contact" Lead To More Scoring?Cyril Moronghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-9442961263249908042011-04-17T16:11:23.292-07:002011-04-17T16:11:23.292-07:00Thanks again. Great info. So they are 1 percentage...Thanks again. Great info. So they are 1 percentage point better than average. That means about an extra 11 DPs or about 4 runs prevented over the course of the yearCyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-72132633137954049242011-04-17T16:02:51.440-07:002011-04-17T16:02:51.440-07:00According to B-R, the 2010 Twins had below-average...According to B-R, the 2010 Twins had below-average GIDP opportunities (runner on 1st with less than 2 outs), but an above average GIDP rate.<br /><br />Tm Run 1 LT 2 Out<br />KCR 1278<br />DET 1218<br />BAL 1187<br />CLE 1184<br />TOR 1171<br />CHW 1148<br />TEX 1145<br />LgAvg 1134<br />NYY 1110<br />SEA 1104<br />BOS 1094<br /><b>MIN 1065</b><br />LAA 1064<br />TBR 1063<br />OAK 1048<br /><br />Tm GIDP %<br />CLE 13%<br />TOR 13%<br />OAK 13%<br />DET 12%<br />CHW 12%<br />NYY 12%<br /><b>MIN 12%</b><br />LgAvg 11%<br />SEA 11%<br />BOS 11%<br />TBR 11%<br />BAL 10%<br />TEX 10%<br />KCR 9%<br />LAA 9%bobmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-32901369356841561112011-04-17T08:20:46.169-07:002011-04-17T08:20:46.169-07:00Bob
Thanks for all that info. Very interesting. T...Bob<br /><br />Thanks for all that info. Very interesting. The grounballs definitely help, but it will take alot of double plays to make up for the extra run. Jim Furtado once came up with -.37 for a double play in terms of run value. That would mean more than two extra double plays per game to offset the increased hitting by pitching to contact.<br /><br />CyCyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-90844051962084300682011-04-17T00:04:17.581-07:002011-04-17T00:04:17.581-07:00Correction - 2010 Twins had the 4th lowest SO/9 bu...Correction - 2010 Twins had the 4th lowest SO/9 but only 6th lowest SO%.bobmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-7320897917393399162011-04-17T00:00:42.548-07:002011-04-17T00:00:42.548-07:00According to B-R, 43 AL pitchers pitched 162 or mo...According to B-R, 43 AL pitchers pitched 162 or more innings in 2010. <br /><br />If "contact" is defined as 1-((K+BB)/BF), then the correlation between contact and ERA was 0.42. In other words, as contact increased, so did ERA, i.e., scoring. <br /><br />By way of comparison, a pitcher's ground ball rate (GB/FB) had a -0.23 correlation with ERA. <br /><br />The Twins' 4th highest ground ball rate (and AL-leading low walk rate) probably helped to offset the negative effects of contact (and 4th lowest strikeout rate).bobmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-80487124534130504832011-04-16T05:48:25.560-07:002011-04-16T05:48:25.560-07:00So far this year the Twins have struck out 17.3% o...So far this year the Twins have struck out 17.3% of the batters they have faced while the league average is 17.56. Not a big difference.Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-59819693454850148722011-04-16T05:41:15.663-07:002011-04-16T05:41:15.663-07:00And Lopat was a lefty pitching in Yankee Stadium. ...And Lopat was a lefty pitching in Yankee Stadium. Right handed batters could belt the ball and just make outs and he probably had better than aveage defense behind him. So his strategy might work in a limited setting. <br /><br />Why is the major league average so high on contact?Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-7891079597595757582011-04-16T05:36:01.779-07:002011-04-16T05:36:01.779-07:00But why is the slugging pct on contact so high the...But why is the slugging pct on contact so high then? Seems like no one is really having success with this strategy. And how do you make the batter hit your pitch?Cyril Moronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07148864847009186694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-608528753722196209.post-63880685308389105722011-04-15T22:11:39.807-07:002011-04-15T22:11:39.807-07:00"Pitching to contact" is not a new idea...."Pitching to contact" is not a new idea. Ed Lopat,in a discussion of strategic pitching, said "Get the ball over the plate and make them hit it. Make them go after hyour pitch, what you want them to hit." And no, it doesn't necessarily leed to more scoring. It can result in an increase in the number of double plays, or more grounders to the infield. So much depends on a pitcher's control and command that it's really not possible to say for sure.Zita Carnonoreply@blogger.com