Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Was This 2011 Prediction True: "Prince Fielder's numbers will surpass those of Albert Pujols?"

It was not my prediction. See Will Prince Fielder Surpass Albert Pujols? The prediction was made by someone on ESPN (I wasn't paying close enough attention at the time to know which one of three announcers said that).  So far this year, in 226 PAs, Fielder has an OPS+ of just 47 (BA-OBP-SLG are 0.193-0.261-0.292). Since 2007, only 4 guys who were 1B or OF or DH had an OPS+ under 47 with 200+ PAs. Maybe his injury from a few years ago (I think it was his neck), is hurting him somehow. But I don't see anyone saying that.

Here is an excerpt from that 2011 (4-20) post I did:

"On Monday night before the Brewers game, a commentator on ESPN said something like "now that Fielder is entering his prime years, his numbers will surpass those of Albert Pujols.""

One thing I showed was a comparison of OPS+ by age for the two players. In the table below, the red line represents the year 2011 for Fielder, which I did not list back then since it was so early in the season. Yes, he did surpass Pujols at that age (but just barely, 164-157). Notice how he has not come close, age-by-age, since then.


Age Pujols OPS+ Fielder OPS+
21 157 97
22 151 110
23 187 157
24 172 130
25 168 166
26 178 137
27 157 164
28 190 151
29 189 122
30 173 102
31 148 124
32 138 47
33 116
34 126
35 117
36 111

The next table shows what they did in each year, starting in 2011. Fielder has hardly dominated Pujols since then, despite being 4 years younger. Fielder beats him 138-130, over the entire 5-year period. Maybe that is what the ESPN announcer meant.


Year Pujols OPS+ Fielder OPS+
11 148 164
12 138 151
13 116 122
14 126 102
15 117 124
16 111 47

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