Thursday, October 2, 2014

Could The Tigers Hit 200 HRs If They Played In Camden Yards?

They just said so on the TBS broadcast. Here are the road HR totals for all AL teams this year


Baltimore 104
LA Angels 82
Chicago Sox 81
Detroit 79
Toronto 79
Boston 74
Houston 73
Oakland 72
Cleveland 70
Tampa Bay 66
Seattle 63
Minnesota 61
Texas 60
NY Yankees 59
Kansas City 52


So the Tigers would have to hit 121 HRs in Camden. Here are the home HR totals for all AL teams this year


Baltimore 107
Toronto 98
Houston 90
NY Yankees 88
Detroit 76
Chicago Sox 74
Oakland 74
LA Angels 73
Seattle 73
Cleveland 72
Minnesota 67
Texas 51
Tampa Bay 51
Boston 49
Kansas City 43

So the Orioles out homered the Tigers in road games 104-79. So why would the Tigers out homer the Orioles 121-107 in Camden? They probably would not.

Also, over the 2011-13 seasons, Balt has had a 122 park index for HRs while Detroit has had 99 (just about average). So Balt allows about  22% HRs than average. But that is only half the games. So we could increase the Tigers HR total this year (155) by 11% and we would get 17 more HRs or 172. Far short of 200

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