So the Tigers would have to hit 121 HRs in Camden. Here are the home HR totals for all AL teams this year
So the Orioles out homered the Tigers in road games 104-79. So why would the Tigers out homer the Orioles 121-107 in Camden? They probably would not.
Also, over the 2011-13 seasons, Balt has had a 122 park index for HRs while Detroit has had 99 (just about average). So Balt allows about 22% HRs than average. But that is only half the games. So we could increase the Tigers HR total this year (155) by 11% and we would get 17 more HRs or 172. Far short of 200