Monday, August 5, 2013

A New, Possibly Useless Stat To Measure All-Around Offensive Skill Based On TB, SB, BB, SO And CS

What if we multiplied TB*SB*BB then divided by (SO + CS)? Who would end up on top? Maybe this is just what Bill James would call a "junk stat." Useless but maybe fun anyway.

The idea here is to combine different skills and then divide by something negative which also measures some skills.

By multiplying TB*SB*BB balance is rewarded. For example, if a guy steals 30 bases and hits 30 HRs, he gets a score of 900 (30*30). If a guy hits 50 HRs and steals 11 bases, he gets a score of 550. That is less than the 30/30. But if we added things, the latter guy would come out on top. But the 30/30 guy is more balanced.

I wanted to use "offsetting skills." Power hitters are usually good at getting total bases while fast guys are usually good at stealing bases. Power and speed don't necessarily go together.

Getting walks is another separate skill. You need a good eye and patience. Now power hitters tend to get more walks so this is not perfect. But power hitters strike out more, too and the formula divides by that (well, SO + CS).

So if you swing for the fences, you hit more HRs, raising your score. But you also are more likely to strike out, lowering your score. Something similar happens with stolen bases. When those go up, your score rises. But you are going to get caught stealing more, so your score falls. Of course, if you are fast, you can turn more singles into doubles and more doubles into triples, upping your TBs.

The ability to make contact is also rewarded since strikeouts are part of the penalty.

So the skills I am trying measure are:

-The ability to make contact
-The ability to get hits
-The ability to hit for power
-Speed (but that alone is not enough to steal bases)
-Getting a good jump when attempting to steal
-The ability to get walks (a good eye and patience)

At this point I have not yet tried to adjust anything for park effects or the league average. I looked at every player who had 5000+ PAs since from 1951-2012. I start in 1951 because that is the first year both leagues continuously recorded caught stealing. The final score was divided by 1000. Otherwise, things would be in the millions.

So who would come out on top of this list? It is someone very well known who alot of people think should be in the Hall of Fame. His vote percentage has been growing in recent years. The number two guy might be a surprise.

Notice how big a lead Raines has over the number two guy, Nellie Fox.

 Rank Player PA CS SB SO TB BB Score 1 Tim Raines 10359 146 808 966 3771 1330 7,715 2 Nellie Fox 9531 75 69 190 3133 650 5,238 3 Tony Gwynn 10232 125 319 434 4259 790 4,341 4 Davey Lopes 7340 114 557 852 2468 833 3,428 5 Joe Morgan 11329 162 689 1015 3962 1865 2,607 6 Richie Ashburn 7808 92 179 479 2541 1017 2,316 7 Carl Yastrzemski 13991 116 168 1393 5539 1845 2,105 8 Roberto Alomar 10400 114 474 1140 4018 1032 2,013 9 Tom Herr 6111 64 188 584 1870 627 1,878 10 Jimmy Rollins 8236 83 403 952 3234 630 1,855 11 Stan Musial 7320 31 29 461 3415 947 1,823 12 Mike Hargrove 6693 37 24 550 2176 965 1,760 13 Willie Mays 12492 103 338 1526 6066 1463 1,752 14 Barry Larkin 9057 77 379 817 3527 939 1,726 15 Chuck Knoblauch 7385 117 407 730 2583 804 1,698 16 Craig Biggio 12503 124 414 1753 4711 1160 1,687 17 Kenny Lofton 9234 160 622 1016 3433 945 1,648 18 Todd Helton 9008 29 37 1088 4124 1295 1,594 19 Rod Carew 10550 187 353 1028 3998 1018 1,486 20 Eddie Yost 6733 48 54 701 1999 1249 1,482 21 Mike Schmidt 10062 92 174 1883 4404 1507 1,471 22 Eddie Mathews 10101 39 68 1487 4349 1444 1,447 23 Dan Driessen 6344 63 154 719 2251 761 1,433 24 Barry Bonds 12606 141 514 1539 5976 2558 1,417 25 Chipper Jones 10614 46 150 1409 4755 1512 1,412