Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Longest Streaks Of Seasons With Both 30+ Starts AND 200+ IP

The leader in not a big surprise nor are most of the rest. But two guys might be. They are both in red because neither is in the Hall of Fame

1    Cy Young                 1891-09   19  
2    Warren Spahn             1947-63   17  
3    Gaylord Perry            1966-80   15  
4    Christy Mathewson        1901-14   14  
T5   Tom Seaver               1967-79   13  
T5   Steve Carlton            1968-80   13  
T5   Phil Niekro              1968-80   13  
T8   Robin Roberts            1949-60   12  
T8   Mickey Lolich            1964-75   12  
T8   Don Sutton               1969-80   12  
T8   Mark Buehrle             2001-12   12  

Monday, July 29, 2013

How Well Do OPS And wOBA Predict Team Runs?

Looking at the years 2007-2012, about the same. I used wOBA from Fangraphs. Some details on wOBA are provided at the end of this post.

For 2010-2012, here are the correlations between each stat and team runs per game (so that is 90 teams/seasons)

OPS: 0.95277
wOBA: 0.95058

This surprised me. wOBA definitely looks like it should do better than OPS since OPS is just OBP + SLG and OBP should get a bigger weight. wOBA is fairly sophisticated, providing a different run value for several different events.

In regressions, here are the standard errors on runs per game from each stat

OPS: 0.1364174
wOBA: 0.1394665

OPS is lower, so it is slightly more accurate.

Since OPS doing a bit better is not what I expected, I looked at the years 2007-09 as well,  and the results were just about the same, with OPS coming out on top by a very slim margin. Maybe I did something wrong, so if anone else has done analysis like this and got something different, please let me know.

1.8*OBP + SLG is said to be a good approximation of wOBA. The funny thing is that when I compared 1.8*OBP + SLG to OPS, OPS came in second. See OPS vs. 1.8*OBP + SLG, so I certainly expected wOBA to do better here.

Update July 30, 10:57 amd central time: I used the years 2003-2012. So that is 300 team seasons. Here are the correlations between each stat and team runs per game:

OPS: 0.95584
wOBA: 0.952973
1.8*OBP + SLG: 0.95714

So 1.8*OBP + SLG is better than wOBA. Not what I expected.

There is an interesting discussion of issues like this at Tom Tango's site. See wOBA v Runs / PA, 2003-2012, Team Offense

Here is what Fangraphs says about wOBA, pasted from their site:

"Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

The wOBA formula for the 2012 season was:

wOBA = (0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B +
2.058×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)
 
These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to 2010 here."

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Teams Having At Least 3 Straight Seasons With A Winning Percentage Under .350

With their loss today, the Astros have a .337 pct. It was .346 in 2011 and .340 in 2012. So they might end up with 3 years in a row under .350. Not many teams have done this. The last to do it was the Mets, 1962-65 (I called up all the teams that had a pct. < .350 using the Lee Sinins Complete Encyclopedia and then pieced togther the ones that had 3 or more in a row-if anyone knows of a team I missed, let me know).

Even if we looked for teams with a pct < .375, the last to do it was the Blue Jays, 1977-79 with .335, .366, and .327. So the Astros are performing at the level of new expansion team these past 3 years.

Here the teams I found with 3 years in a row under .350. The team called the Washington Nationals is defunct. Retrosheet calls them the Nationals and Baseball Reference calls them the Senators.


Team
YEAR
PCT
A's
1919
0.257
A's
1920
0.312
A's
1921
0.346
Braves
1909
0.294
Braves
1910
0.346
Braves
1911
0.291
Braves
1912
0.340
Browns
1910
0.305
Browns
1911
0.296
Browns
1912
0.344
Stl. Browns (now Cards)
1895
0.298
Stl. Browns (now Cards)
1896
0.308
Stl. Browns (now Cards)
1897
0.221
Stl. Browns (now Cards)
1898
0.260
Cardinals
1906
0.347
Cardinals
1907
0.340
Cardinals
1908
0.318
Mets
1962
0.250
Mets
1963
0.315
Mets
1964
0.327
Mets
1965
0.309
Phillies
1938
0.300
Phillies
1939
0.298
Phillies
1940
0.327
Phillies
1941
0.279
Phillies
1942
0.278
Pirates
1952
0.273
Pirates
1953
0.325
Pirates
1954
0.344
Red Sox
1925
0.309
Red Sox
1926
0.301
Red Sox
1927
0.331
Washington Nationals
1893
0.310
Washington Nationals
1894
0.344
Washington Nationals
1895
0.336
Louisville Colonels
1894
0.271
Louisville Colonels
1895
0.269
Louisville Colonels
1896
0.290

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Astros Last Or Almost Last In Several Categories

Last in ERA+ with 84. Next lowest is Seattle, with 89.

Last in ERA with 4.96. Next highest is Toronto with 4.35. League average is 4.06

Last in runs per game allowed with 5.37. Next highest is Toronto with 4.84

Last in SO/BB ratio with 1.82. Next lowest is Minnesota at 2.08. League average is 2.51

About tied for last in walks per 9 IP with Cleveland at 3.7. League average is 3.0

13th in SO per 9 IP with 6.8. League average is 7.6

Last in HRs allowed per IP with 1.3. League average is 1.1. Ball park probably hurts. HR park factor of 1.06 from 2010-12. So it allows 6% more HRs. Yet Astros allow 18% more than average.

Last in hits per 9 IP with 9.8. League average is 8.8

Last in WHIP with 1.518. League average is 1.315.

Last in defensive efficiency rating (DER) .672. Next lowest is Detroit with .680. League average is .691

Last in fielding pct with .980. League average is .985. Detroit is 6th in (DER)

Next to last in OPS+ with 84. White Sox are last with 83.

Last in OPS with .669. Next lowest is NY with .678. League average is .727

Most strikeouts with 947. Next highest is Seattle with 853. League average is 761

12th in walks with 264. Baltimore is last with 250. League average is 313.87

Last in runs per game with 3.75. League average is 4.37

Last in TB with 1269 (tied with KC). League average is 1421.67

Next to last in SLG with .374 (NY has .371) League average is .407

Last in OBP with .295. White Sox are next with .303. League average is .320

Last in AVG with .235. NY, Sea, Oak, Min all have .243. League average is .256

Just about average in SBs with 59 (58 is avg). But most CS with 33. Pct is 64%. League average is 73.4%. Minn is last with 62%

Somehow they are just average at grounding into DPs. 11% of the chances

Their position players comine for a WAR of 2.3 and their pitchers have 1.7. So I guess they are just 4 wins above replacement.

One way to judge speed is 3B/(2B + 3B). It is an idea from Voros McCracken. The idea is that you need to be fast to turn extra base hits into 3Bs. Astors have .057 while the league average is .075. Astros are 12th. Seattle is last with .044





Thursday, July 25, 2013

WAR Leaders At Ages 19 & 20 Combined Among Position Players

Harper has a WAR of 1.5 in 63 games this year. If he plays the rest of the season and gets 1.5 more, he would reach 8.2. Machado has 4.8 in 102 games this year. If gets 2.4 more this year he would be at 8.8. Maybe three of the greatest young players ever are out there right now.


Rk
Player
WAR
From
To
G
1
Mike Trout
11.6
2011
2012
179
2
Mel Ott
11.3
1928
1929
274
3
Al Kaline
9.4
1954
1955
290
4
Ty Cobb
9.3
1906
1907
248
5
Alex Rodriguez
8.9
1995
1996
194
6
Ken Griffey
8.4
1989
1990
282
7
Mickey Mantle
7.8
1951
1952
238
8
Vada Pinson
6.7
1958
1959
181
9
Bryce Harper
6.7
2012
2013
202
10
Ted Williams
6.7
1939
1939
149
11
Frank Robinson
6.5
1956
1956
152
12
Manny Machado
6.4
2012
2013
153
13
Jason Heyward
6.4
2010
2010
142
14
Sherry Magee
6.4
1904
1905
250
15
Claudell Washington
6.1
1974
1975
221
16
Travis Jackson
6.1
1923
1924
247
17
Jimmie Foxx
5.6
1927
1928
179
18
Tony Conigliaro
5
1964
1965
249
19
Jimmy Sheckard
5
1898
1899
252
20
George Davis
4.9
1890
1891
272
21
Buddy Lewis
4.9
1936
1937
299
22
John McGraw
4.9
1892
1893
206