Thursday, November 24, 2011
Teams That Won The Most Post-Season Games Over A Two-Year Period Yet Failed To Win The World Series In Either Year
Saturday, November 12, 2011
It seem like SLGA is supposed to be slugging percentage allowed. Yahoo may have divided TB by TBF instead of AB. Buehrle has allowed 4011 TB in his career and 4011/10317 = .389. But if they used that for SLGA, what is OBSA? I thought it might be OPS allowed, but then Buehrle should have .704 using Yahoo's numbers. But they show only .689. So it is not clear what is going on.
Here are the links the Yahoo pages for these three pitchers.
Now for Baseball Reference
Monday, November 7, 2011
This came up on one of the SABR bulletin boards.
Their OPS differential for the whole season was .073. That translates into a winning pct of .592 using my equation Pct = .5 + 1.26*OPSDIFF. The Orioles had a differential of .096, good for a pct of .621. That means that the Orioles would have 53% chance of winning any given game using Bill James' Log 5 method. I came up with the Orioles having about a 56.5% chance of winning the series, taking into account all the different ways they could win a series of a given length. They also had home field advantage, which should have increased things about 2% (2% more than 55.7% so about 58%)
7.9% of the time it is an Orioles sweep
14.8% of the time the O's win in 5
17.4% of the time they win in 6
16.4% of the time they win in 7
So the Pirates had a 42% chance of winning
Friday, November 4, 2011
Pct = .5 + 1.26*OPSDifferential
The A's had an OPS of .771 while their pitchers allowed an OPS of .699. So their differential was .072. The equation predicts a pct of .591 or about 95.7 wins. They actually won 103. So they won about 7.3 more games than expected. The standard error of the regression that generated the above equation was 5.04, so the A's were 1.44 standard deviations above their expectation. Not huge, but not small either.
They did have a 32-14 record in 1-run games for a pct. of .696. They had a .612 pct. in all other games. If they had that for all games, they would have won 99.16 games, alot closer to what their OPS differential predicts.
I don't see anything in particular that explains why they outperformed their projection. The table below shows how both their hitters and pitchers performed in various situations followed by their differentials in those situations (data from Retrosheet).
Nothing really jumps out. Their differentials with runners in scoring position (RISP) are a bit higher than with none on and to a lesser extent with bases loaded. Their OBP differential looks good in close and late situations but their SLG differential is much lower than normal. Their overall OBP differential was .024 while for SLG it was .048.
The A's grounded into 128 DPs, just one more than their opponents, whom they out OBPed .339 to .315. Their GIDP rate was 10% while the league average was 11%, the rate the A's allowed (some data also from Baseball Reference).
The A's only had 20 sacrifice hits while their opponents had 50. So they saved 30 outs that way. The A's were46-20 stealing while their opponents were 68-46. So they saved 26 outs there. All of that is about two games worth of outs.
The A's out homered their opponents 205-135, by 70. They only hit 10 more 2B's than their opponents and had the same number of 3B's. So their advantage in SLG was almost entirely determined by this big HR advantage and HRs have one additional edge over other hits in that they guarantee at least one run.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Has Starlin Castro done things offensively that guys who go on to be ten-time All-Stars and Hall of Famers did?
"Offensively, the things he has done is what guys who go on to be ten-time All-Stars and Hall of Famers do."
See Theo Epstein Loves Starlin Castro and Other Bullets at "Bleacher Nation."
The list below shows all 2B-SS who had 500+ PAs through the age of 21 and their OPS+.
He is close to two Hall of Famers, Alomar and Ripken. He has done better so far than two frequent All-Stars, Whitaker and Randolph. But Delino DeShields and Gregg Jeffries did better and are not in the Hall and Jeffries had just two All-Star teams.
Here are three SS he is ahead of who made the Hall:
Travis Jackson 92
Robin Yount 86
Rabbit Maranville 78