Wednesday, October 19, 2011

OPS Differential Gives Big Edge To Rangers

The Rangers hitters had an OPS of .800 during the season and their pitchers allowed a .698 OPS. So that is a .102 differential.

The comparable numbers for the Cardinals are .766-.717-.049.

The following equation gives a good estimate of winning percentage.

Pct = .5 + 1.3*OPSDIFF

That gives the Rangers a winning percentage of .633 and the Cards .564. Using the Log5 method for predicting the probability of winning by Bill James and Dallas Adams (and posted by Tangotiger)

W%(A v. B) = W%(A)*(1 - W%(B))/(W%(A)*(1 - W%(B)) + (1 - W%(A))*W%(B))

we get the Rangers having a 57% chance of winning any given game (this leaves out home field advantage).

The Rangers were even better in September, with a differenital of .298 (.916 - .618). The Cards had .125 (.807 - .682).

The Rangers, however, have a negative differential in the playoffs so far of -.017 (.764 - .781) while the Cards have .096 (.793 - .699). Combining the September differential and the playoff differential in a weighted average by games gives the Rangers a differential of .208 and the Cards .116.

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