Thursday, October 1, 2009

Yes, We Should Have Kept An Eye On The Rockies

On June 8th, I asked Should We Keep An Eye On The Rockies? It was right after they swept the Cardinals in St. Louis, scoring alot of runs in a combination of blowouts and un-close games. Given that the Cards were (and still are) a very good team, I thought the sweep was an indicator of how good the Rockies might be.

But I sure got some other precictions wrong. Like Albert Pujols Has A Good Chance To Win The Triple Crown. He lead the league in HRs and RBI's on July 4th while only trailing Hanley Ramirez in average by .008 in average. I thought is better track record (including 2nd half hitting) gave him a good shot to lead in AVG over Ramirez and the other top hitters. But he may not even lead in RBIs.

And then there was Is Ryan Howard The New Mickey Vernon? (Or Is His Career Really In Decline?). His offensive winning percentage(OWP) had declined the last 2 years.

.777 (26)
.675 (27)
.582 (28)

So those declines were .102 & .093. If I had limited the study to declines of .093 or more, there were only 8 guys. The only one whose decline started before age 30 was Vernon. Here is what happened to Vernon:

.759 (28)
.465 (29)
.284 (30)

But he bounced back at age 31 with .579. And Howard, too, has bounced back. I don't have his OWP for this year, but his adjusted OPS the last 4 years, including this year have been (from Baseball Reference)


Vernon's 4 years were


So I guess I was right: Howard is the new Vernon. Any player under 30 with a .093 or more decline in OWP 2 straight years will bounce back the next year with a better season.:)

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